France Telecom / Cable and Wireless Potential Deal Examined

France Telecom / Cable and Wireless Potential Deal ExaminedLast weekend there was a report that France Telecom (FT) were rumored to be buying Cable and Wireless (C&W) for GBP 4bn. FT has of course denied it.

Though the telco market is consolidating, it does seem an odd match.

FT is the French equivalent of British Telecom (BT) the incumbent operator. The French government still owns a considerable portion of FT (though it has recently released a number of shares on to the open market).

C&W a UK monolith

C&W comes from the old school of telecoms, it’s a giant. It was half of the duoploy with BT when the telecoms market deregulated in 1994 (under the Mercury brand). It became very cash rich (to the annoyance of C&W’s shareholders), but like every other telco was hit hard by the telecoms crash after the dot com boom. They sold of their US operations (apart from the Caribean where they are still a virtual monopoly and very profitable) and have concentrated on their core UK operations.

As a telco, C&W has become very aggressive with their pricing especially in the wholesale minutes market and carry a lot of traffic for UK “switchless” providers and Carrier PreSelect (CPS) companies. They’ve become so aggressive they’ve been accused of predatory pricing (i.e. selling under cost to win business in the hope that it wins further business) but that’s not been proven.

They are trying to move into new areas and have announced new products such as VoIP, but as yet these are really marketing noises.

France Telecom / Cable and Wireless Potential Deal ExaminedOne area where they have invested in and have made real progress is Local Loop Unbundling (LLU) with their purchase of Bulldog (for GBP 18m). Bulldog have now unbundled about 400 exchanges and have plans to unbundle another 400 by the end of the year.

The C&W and Bulldog acquisition has had teething problems, cutting over to the vastly increased C&W infrastructure didn’t go particularly smoothly with customers losing connectivity for hours at a time. There are still on-going problems.

FT and C&W, not an ideal match

Would FT purchase C&W, well they might, but it would be an expensive buy.

France Telecom / Cable and Wireless Potential Deal ExaminedWanadoo (the ISP arm of FT) has stated they are going to invest EU 300m in unbundling exchanges (in the first year) and rumour has it there’s a total of EU 1bn over 3 years for LLU. So FT could buy C&W just for the LLU aspects, but really does seem excessive. C&W bought Bulldog for GBP 18m and they’ve invested at least 10’s of million into them. So 4bn is a HUGE premium to pay for a ready made network and 10’s of thousands of customers. Wanadoo already have considerably more broadband customers than Bulldog.

C&W have a big network, with good links into most of the telecoms companies in the UK, that might be of some value but the global number of call minutes is decreasing (as people move to VoIP) and the value per minute is decreasing even more rapidly (as flat rate calls – especially in the VoIP arena – become the norm). A call to anywhere in the world is now approaching around 2c (on average) per minute.

Another minus point is that FT already have a UK network (they purchased Equant), so having an old legacy telecoms network can’t seem that attractive.

There’s also Orange to worry about (the mobile side of FT), they also have considerable UK telecoms infrastructure.

All in all it doesn’t seem a good fit, though of course there may be another completely hidden agenda.

France Telecom
Cable and Wireless
Bulldog DSL

UK Pets Ousted By iPods And Consoles

UK Pets Ousted By iPods And ConsolesA report by compilers Mintel International has revealed that pets are being ousted by consumer electronics in British homes.

The percentage of British homes with a pet has fallen from almost 55 per cent in 1999 to 48 per cent, with consumers so obsessed with fragging space aliens and listening to iPods that there’s no time for looking after cute little Tiddles and frisky Fido.

UK Pets Ousted By iPods And ConsolesThe study observed that, “In those families with children, the demand for pets may not be as strong as it once was, since many children now prefer to immerse themselves in the world of computer games and TV programmes”.

The report suggests that the decline in pet ownership has also been exacerbated by modern living, exemplified by “longer working hours, the increase of overseas holidays and the trend to live in flats and smaller homes”.

UK Pets Ousted By iPods And ConsolesBut it’s not all bad news for our precious pampered pooches and treasured tabbies, with the report revealing that sales of pet food, accessories and pet insurance have rocketed by 24 percent in the past five years, reaching a total of US$6.5 billion.

“Amongst the gloom of reduced pet ownership shines the very bright light that is the continued willingness of owners to indulge themselves and their pets,” purred Katy Child, senior retail analyst at Mintel.

“Despite a decline in the popularity of some pets, the remaining pet owners have shown themselves willing to spend more than ever before,” she added, stroking furiously.

UK Pets Ousted By iPods And ConsolesWith the rise of home entertainment robots like the Sony Aibo and the forthcoming Nintendo virtual pet game, Nintendogs (where virtual dogs will respond to voice commands and bark at passing Nintendog consoles), we wonder how long it will be before children think that pets live on batteries.

And with no pets in the house, hen-pecked husbands looking to slip out to the pub for a sneaky feast of lager are going to have to find a new excuse as, “Honey, I’m taking the iPod for a walk,” isn’t likely to convince.

Mintel International
Nintendogs (in Japanese)

Advertising in Games Forum predicts $1Bn in revenue 2010

Advertising in Games Forum predicts $1 Billion advertising revenue in US by 2010Last week, 250 executives from advertising agencies, game developers and publishers swarmed into the first annual Advertising in Games Forum on 14 April 2005 in New York City.

The audience, primarily made up of sharp-suited, silver tongued advertising agency executives, were there to discover more about market opportunities and expectations within the game industry.

According to the organisers, The Game Initiative, attendees were treated to a feast of ‘key facts, figures and estimates’ spun out by leading industry experts at the forum.

In a bullet point-laden onslaught of PowerPoint presentations, these key facts emerged:

According to the Yankee Group, advertising in games is expected to rise to US$800 million in 2009 from nearly US$120 million in 2004.

Around US$266 million – that’s more than one-third of advertising in games in 2009 – will come from (wait for it) “advergaming.”

Advertising in Games Forum predicts $1 Billion advertising revenue in US by 2010For the benefit of buzzword-deficient execs, Yankee Group senior analyst Mike Goodman explained that this hideous word describes what you get when advertisers create a game around a product rather than place their brands within a well-known title.

Mitch Davis, chief executive of video game ad network Massive Inc., whipped the watching execs into a frenzy of monetary expectation when he revealed that the audience video game advertising would top US$1 billion in the United States by 2010, and approach US$2.5 billion worldwide.

Anita Frazier, Entertainment Industry Analyst, NPD Group opened up her big book marked ‘Facts’ and informed the Advertising In Games Forum audience that there are 100 million game capable cell phones currently in the Marketplace – with 65% of the population owning a cell phone.

The sound of keenly rubbing palms grew to a crescendo as Frazier announced that within 16 months all cell phones in the marketplace should be game capable and thus brimming with cash-raking, game-downloading potential.

Advertising in Games Forum predicts $1 Billion advertising revenue in US by 2010Fact-bloated attendees also learned that the top selling 2004 game titles (according to the NPD Group) were:

  1. Grand Theft Auto San Andreas – 5.5 million sold since launch
  2. Halo 2 on X box – 4.5 million units sold since launch
  3. Madden NFL 2004 on PS 2 – 3.5 million units sold since launch
  4. ESPN NFL 2K5 -1.6 million units sold since launch
  5. Need for Speed Underground 2 -1.7 million units since launch

The top selling PC title of 2004 was Sims 2 with 750,000 units sold.

The ‘best selling game title of all time’ title goes to Grand Theft Auto Vice City with a massive 6.5 million units shifted, with Super Mario 64 on the N64 coming in second with an impressive 6.0 million units.

Game Initiative

European Broadband Pricing Drops 23% in 2004

A new report, the European Broadband Pricing Report, researched by Quantum Web and distributed by BroadGroup, shows European broadband pricing (of speeds between 0.5Mbps and 2Mbps) dropping since January 2004 by around 23%. The numbers of supplier and packages available have increased considerably over this period with 0.5Mbps tariffs availability increasing 75%.

455 tariffs offered by 109 operators over 36 European countries were examined over the first three quarters of this year (2004).

At the higher speeds, 4Mbps and 8Mbps the price reductions have been less dramatic. Clearly at this premium-end of the market there is little competition and in their words “[leaves] more room for price elasticity for content providers.”

It’s interesting to note that non-DSL products make up 20% of the European market.
BroadGroup European Broadband Pricing Q3 2004 Graph
We find it surprising that, given the intense competition at the 0.5Mbps level, pricing hasn’t come down more than at 1 and 2Mbps levels. We wonder if this is due to the majority of connections being provided by wholesalers to markets, such as BT Wholesale in the UK. Without competition at this level, these wholesalers (normally the incumbent telco) don’t have much impetus to lower their prices dramatically, just gradually, to keep their telecoms regulator from getting angry.

When we asked the BroadGroup about pricing across the surveyed countries they said there was a considerable difference. Generally, the previous Eastern European counties have lower pricing, as do many of the Scandinavian countries. To us this points towards major fibre optic network runs equalling lower prices, as most of the former Eastern Europe frog leapt mainland Europe by replacing their antiquated phone system with fibre. Scandinavia is well known for their wisdom in laying copious amount of fibre. We suggest that those trying to make their countries competitive both in terms of the obvious – IT, and the less obvious – digital entertainment networks, pay attention.

BroadGroup – Broadband Pricing in Europe Q3 2004

London Media Summit: McKinsey’s Five Key Media Trends

Piracy, technology, brand concentration, fighting for advertising dollars and a new consumer relationship are to be the hallmarks of commercial success in the international media markets in the near term, according to international consulting group McKinsey & Co.

Michael J Wolf, McKinsey’s Director and Global Leader – Media & Entertainment practice, outlined these challenges at Friday’s the London Media Summit 2004 organised by the London Business School in association with CNN and Deloitte. 

In a knockabout, amusing presentation, Wolf emphasised that few media groups were generating profits currently and that a new tough approach was required to rebuild shareholder value.  Although the tipping point – when TV channel income from advertising fell below 50% – was some way off, five key trends were emerging within media groups’ strategies to counter ad revenue decline.

Number one was a marked rise in aggressive competition for advertiser’s dollars. Audience fragmentation and the advertiser’s trend to ‘up’ their mix of below-the-line media spend have left agencies sharing a smaller cake with what’s left flowing to low risk, conservative programme slots. Next was a move from simply owning the content or the means of delivery to owning the audience and the opportunities that give rise to direct merchandising and long term revenues. 

Technology was the third new and major influence – from the ability of viewers to skip ads with TiVos, to the enhanced ability to connect interactively with audiences, as evidenced by the 100m registered users of Everquest in China. Wolf used the now tired sounding expression ‘lean back or lean forward’ technologies by way of illustrating the diversity of ways now being employed to engage with viewers.

He then moved onto IP and the risks of piracy before concluding with his fifth trend; brand concentration.  Wolf said more funds would go into developing the best top brands at the expenses of lesser ones. That development would include enhancing the quality of the output and cited HBO as a prime example of where quality led to profitability.                


:SP: Clearly McKinsey clients are primarily the current Media Majors, the huge organisations that currently control the output and access to the media, not the fast moving, smaller media companies that some feel are coming up to out manoeuvre and potentially bite them. We’re somewhat confused by his view of brand remaining important when anyone who has lived with a PVR for any period of time knows full well that viewers couldn’t care less where the content comes from. These comments also don’t take into account the thinking around the Long Tail. As to the final point on raising quality – we heartily applaud any thing that brings higher quality to the viewer.

London Media Summit 2005

VoIP Threatens Traditional Telcos Revenue

It comes as little surprise that a new report from Analysys, global advisers on telecoms, IT and media, reports that over 50 million broadband users in Western Europe could potentially be using private Voice over Internet Protocol Applications (PVAs) by 2008. As a result, the impact on traditional telephony providers’ revenues could reach 6.4 billion euros (~$8.23Bn, ~£4.47Bn) in 2008, representing 13 per cent of the residential fixed-line voice market.

VoIP technology – used in excellent applications such as Skype – works by digitising voice in data packets, sending them over the Internet using TCP/IP networks, and then reconverting them into voice at the destination. As well as offering a ‘free’ alternative for voice conversations compared to traditional fixed lines, you can also compress voice packets, route them, convert them to a new better format, and so on – bypassing the existing PSTN network.

Digital signals are also more noise tolerant than analogue ones – a feature appreciated by users communicating overseas. With VoIP, you can also talk all the time with every person you want (as long as the other person is also connected to Internet at the same time) for no call charges. And, in addition, you can talk with multiple people (conference call) at the same time.

Analysys advises that incumbent public switched telephone network (PSTN) operators are highly vulnerable and should assess the weaker segments of their market and create targeted packages to retain valuable customers. They also advise that service providers should also make subscriptions the core of their service packages.

“The recent rapid take-up of Private Voice Applications (PVAs) using free downloadable software from providers such as Skype raises the possibility of the appearance of a critical mass of PVA users that could unleash a significant structural change in the voice market by the removal of a large proportion of PSTN revenues,” says report co-author Stephen Sale. “In the residential market, PVAs are typically used to make longer calls to friends and family, the core telephony business of fixed-line incumbents. In combination with increased mobile usage, this could render the PSTN subscription worthless for many broadband users. Fixed-line voice would face not only mobile substitution, but PVA substitution as well.”

The report, Voice Communications: From Public Service to Private Application, examines the potential impact of these applications on the residential voice market. It uses new market models to show that, given favourable future regulatory and other conditions, the rapid adoption of PVAs could generate direct revenues of over 3.5 billion euros (~$4.5Bn, ~£2.44Bn), the bulk (about 85 per cent) stemming from subscriptions, not call charges.

This emphasises the huge importance that the subscription element will have in a future multiservice mix and in establishing PVAs in the mass market. Further research from consultancy firm Mercer has suggested that Internet-based phone services could be in use by up to 30 per cent of homes in the UK and the US in the next three years.

The report is available to purchase online at http://research.analysys.com/stor, priced at £1,700 (approximately 2,500 euros).

VoD, NVoD & DVR All to Grow In Europe – Yankee

Combined Annual VoD and NVoD revenue will increase fivefold to Euro 2.2 Billion by 2008, while DVR service penetration will also increase to 20% of Western European Digital TV Homes by 2008, says Yankee Group.

Video on demand (VoD) and digital video recording (DVR) are phrases that service providers are getting very used to – because that is where their business is heading, and both will “coexist as complementary options for digital TV customers,” says Jonathan Doran, Yankee Group Broadband & Media Europe senior analyst, in yesterday’s news release.

Yankee predicts that Video-on-demand (VoD) and its variants will account for an increasing proportion of digital TV revenue in Western Europe, with products like FastWeb and arrivo accounting for a growing proportion of European pay-TV revenue in the next 3 to 5 years.

Two reports, On-Demand TV, Part 1: VoD Will Grow Europe’s Pay-TV Markets, but Not Much, and On-Demand TV, Part 2: Operators Must Move Fast to Add DVR to Their Digital Proposition, mention some challenges that VoD must face. Cable operators, for example, will have to fork out for digital upgrade costs and provision of customer-premises equipment, while satellite operators won’t be able to provide true VoD services if they don’t have a return path. Furthermore, while services such as Sky+ and PILOTIME are showing strong initial appeal among early adopters, high subscription fees will deter many users.

But most importantly, Yankee says platform operators will have to recognise that VoD represents an enhancement of the digital TV value proposition rather than a core application, so that although VoD will become an intrinsic part of digital TV, it will only account for a modest share of overall service revenue.

Operator-provided DVR service faces numerous challenges, Yankee warns, like competition from standalone retail DVR and DVD-R units. However, as equipment prices continue to fall and platform operators increase their marketing push, consumer adoption of DVR service is increasing. “DVR services will be more widely and frequently used by digital TV subscribers than regular VoD offerings that are limited to the less ubiquitous cable and broadband platforms,” says Jonathan Doran.

It’s still more theoretical than practical at the moment, so many cable operators will have to play it safe and offer both VoD and DVR until a demand pattern is established.

WiFi Pricing in Europe is Over Complex

At the IBM sponsored Wi-Fi Business Development Summit in Paris, consultancy BroadGroup has warned providers to pull back from complex pricing systems for Wi-Fi services, while it also warned major industry players to increase marketing emphasis on monthly subscriptions.

In simpler language – more transparency is needed. The more schemes and user choice on offer, the more complex pricing structures become it would seem, and BroadGroup define the current schemes as being ‘too finely segmented’. Using source material based on two recent European surveys of 122 Wi-Fi service providers and 83 GPRS operators, BroadGroup said that the findings suggested Wi-Fi is trending towards tariff structures that would leave users unable to comprehend what they were being charged. Whether this is the intent of the WiFi operators isn’t clear.

But what alternative is there for WiFi service providers if differentiating offerings is the only way to drive marketing strategies, the current mix leaving users with 365 tariff schemes across 28 countries – one for each day of the year.

It’s true, when you are bamboozled with too many price-saving schemes and special offers you end up being so confused that you just opt for the one you understand the best, and not the one that necessarily cuts your bill. And this is borne out by the fact that BroadGroup provided examples showing that if users did not know how many MB they consumed each month, they could be penalised by selecting an inappropriate tariff.

Furthermore, most Web sites did not provide an interpretation of MB usage anyway. Even if they all did, you’d wonder how many customers would actually have enough time to study them in detail. BroadGroup is currently conducting a study of business travellers in Europe to provide insight into data usage and what users understand as mobile data.

BroadGroup research also found that average pricing in the most popular timebands – 1 hour, 24-hours and 1 month had remained largely unchanged over the last 18 months. 24 hour pricing is now offered by 58% of all service providers in Europe with an average price of €15.08. However in a market where prepaid methodologies now dominated, the consultancy believed there was a need to concentrate on the promotion of monthly subscriptions to sustain business growth.

The consultancy also noted that European Wi-Fi prices continued to be more expensive than the US and Asia.

BroadGroup

OPA Generational Media Study Yields Interesting Results

This week the Online Publishers Association (OPA) announced the results of its latest Generational Media Study, designed to provide a detailed view of the 18 to 34 year-old media consumer. The study examines how the Internet, television, radio, newspapers and magazines compare across the generations on a range of attitudinal measures.

It’s no longer a case of ‘Book Good, Screen Bad’.  It’s now increasingly accepted and understood that the screen is a ‘moveable feast’.  So, all of you who are involved in online content will be happy and relieved to learn that 97% of 18 to 34 year olds believe that online is the same or better than magazines for finding information about products and music.

Since it has now become apparent that TV advertising is outmoded and ineffective, advertisers must turn their attentions to the online community especially since 67% of respondents say that watching a short video clip online is the same or better than watching highlights on television.  Notwithstanding, television moguls can breath a sigh of relief, temporarily any way, since more youngsters still favour television over online media for watching longer video programming.

For the Internet, the only way is up, with 47% of respondents indicating that they spend more time using the Internet now compared to one year ago, while interestingly, a healthy minority reported spending less time playing video/PC games and watching television.

The print media should be worried though since the Internet and television are by far the most frequently used media by all respondents, 83% saying that reading a story on the Internet is the same or better than reading one in a newspaper. Furthermore, the importance of newspapers differs significantly, with more daily readers coming from the 35 to 54 age group.

But attitudes take a quirky turn when it comes to trust; with more 18 to 24 year-olds saying that they trust the news they get in newspapers, compared to older readers.  Could the technobabes be too naive, or is it really true that we become more cynical as we grow older?

Online Publishers Association

The IBC Digital Lifestyles Interviews – Simon Perry – Part I

This is the first in a series of eight articles with some of the people involved with the Digital Lifestyles conference day at IBC2004.

We interviewed Simon Perry, the executive producer of the Digital Lifestyles theme day, in a two-part feature that covers on the makeup of the day and question him convergence and other aspects of the media. He publishes Digital Lifestyles magazine.



Fraser Lovatt: Tell me about the four discussion sessions at IBC this year.  What are they about and who’s speaking at them?

Simon Perry: When the Digital Lifestyles day was introduced at IBC last year, my aim was to set the scene – to signal the change in the content industry. This year builds on that, by highlighting four specific areas that merit closer attention by the creative, business and technology people.

The day will inform the delegates on the new types of content possible, how to get paid for it, where you can deliver it and the business models around it.

The first session is titled ‘New platforms, new content’.

It is set in the context that, with new content delivery methods comes new forms of content. It’s chaired by Ashley Highfield, director of New Media & Technology at the BBC, and will create a discussion between some of the most experienced and forward-thinking Games, Film and TV people. In each of their fields they are bringing together different strands of content, creating something that couldn’t have existed previously, such as content that migrates between platforms, creating united content.

The second session is about getting paid for content. Up to now, the industry has been focused on protecting the content that they have, which is understandable and technology companies have been more than happy to assist them.

I feel this is a distraction. The really key part is how the consuming public are going to pay for content that they think is worth paying for, whether they receive it to their mobile phone, their TV, via broadband to their PC’s or through an adaptor on to their TV. The methods of payment are as diverse as the delivery methods.

The panel brings together the knowledge and experience of people who are successfully receiving payments from the public for text and video content; others offering payment systems that take small amounts, less that a pound/dollar, online and others that use mobile phones to make payments.

Tim Jones, the CEO of  Simpay will be on the panel. Simpay was brought to life by the four major mobile phone networks in the UK. The first stage of their service offers the phone-carrying public to pay for phone delivered content – catching up with the currently favoured premium-rate SMS charging. The next stage is – and this is where it becomes a more interesting example – allowing you pay for any types of content, as well as physical goods from shops, using your phone. It is something that has been theorised for a long time and Simpay appear to be pulling it together now. Tim’s background is particularly interesting. He co-invented Mondex, which as we all know, was the first form of public e-cash in the UK.

The third session is chaired by Ken Rutkowski of Ken Radio, and is about informing the content creators about the increasing range of platforms that are available to them for distributing their content. Within the industry there are different stages of knowledge, expectation and experience of what digital lifestyles will mean to the creators of the content, as well as the public. In this third session they will explore what roles different media play on different platforms and the effect it is going to have on the type of content people produce. Ken’s enthusiasm will lift the best out of the panellist.

The forth session is future business models chaired by media journalist, Kate Bulkley. It will explore the models that will run aside 30-second spot ads; mobile delivery; gaining benefit from efficient delivery to different platforms; generating new revenue from TV. There’s a lot of innovation in this area.

What does convergence mean to you? What’s your internal definition of it?

It’s an interesting word. It’s been around for a long time – and increasingly, over the last six/nine months it has become to mean anything that any marketeer wants it to mean. The original definition saw all devices being morphed in to one device. It’s clear that there won’t be convergence to that extent. It’s becoming less defined. The more it enters everyones vocabulary, the wider the definition becomes. Perversely it’s definition is diverging.
 
The convergence that Digital Lifestyles magazine focuses on, is how the influx of technology into the creation, transfer and reception of media content is changing the industry. Where media and technology touch, is what’s of interest to us, and the impact it will have.

There is an argument that media has always been a technological activity. From first workings and marking things on cave walls to the development of perspective, to the first film studios to television. It has always been technology-led.

That is probably true. Well it’s not probably true – it is true. The definition of what is technology is a sliding window, isn’t it? Pens, paper and the printing press were all once thought of as advanced technology, and then they slowly shifted to become the norm. I would argue that the window moves more quickly these days.

But media always seems to be at the forefront of technology – many technological breakthroughs are media related and have been throughout the history of mankind.

Technology has certainly had an influence – I don’t know whether media has always been pushing technology, or whether it has always been using the latest technology. It certainly has previously utilised it, and the people who have utilised the technology are the ones that have had the upper hand. Look back to Murdoch in the use of technology in the production of newspapers, originally pioneered by the Eddie Shah with Today.

I think people get business advantage by using technology and media. I don’t think necessarily the mainstream media are quick in adopting technologies and making the most of them, and that’s frustrating. However, this gives a space for the people who are outside the mainstream media, micro-production companies if you will, to use the technologies to create and deliver their content to an audience on an economic basis.

Do you think the public thave an active participation in convergence? Do they see the convergence as something they are getting involved in or do they see it as something that has happened around them? Five years ago they were going out and buying DVD players and now they are buying PVRs – Do you think they are seeing it as progress or just something new to buy?

Let’s use digital music, because that’s quite a good example. One of the articles on Digital Lifestyles today covered the Virgin Music Player, a little thing you just hang on your waist.  People will obviously notice that they don’t have to carry around a bulky CD player or a mini disc player or a cassette player, but as to whether they realise that the changes are wider reaching than that – I doubt it. It will feel like another small step.

These days people are now conscious of change. They have come to expect things to change. They are becoming numbed to the “Oh my god” reaction, when they come into contact with a new use of technology.

The people in the industry see it as significant, because they see the long-term impact.
 
One of the ironies I perceive with convergence is that the media itself, those pieces of entertainment like music, film and to some extent e-books, are becoming fragmented through platform and DRM issues. Do you think that we will be happy buying three versions of the same thing in the near future because the DRM or file formats are incompatible, or do you think that this will be resolved gracefully?

Incompatibility is a fear of mine and yes, in the short term, it is likely. It’ll happen because of the number of incompatible content protection systems that are around. I think the industry, whether it be the providers of content protection or the media companies, which are using the content protection systems that don’t allow interchange between devices are going to do themselves a disservice and, if it continues, will frankly end up irritating the customer.

I have asked the question to quite a number of people in the media business and technology business – I have never really had a good answer from them either. How do you sell the public something that’s less good, through it’s restrictions, than the thing that is being replaced? Something that ends up flexible, even though the form it is held in allows greater flexibility? So, short term I think it probably will be a problem. I hope that it won’t be a problem beyond the short term.

It can be argued that a lot of the fragmentation that we are seeing in media in file formats and devices is down to proprietary systems that are involved in the creation of media, and in its protection and distribution so we have DRM, we have CDs which can’t be played on PCs.   These are all proprietary.  Do you think there is a place for open standards in a convergent media culture?

I think the reason this hasn’t happened so far is that the prize is so enormous. The prize for being the provider of content protection is to be one of the largest businesses in the world. Much commercial material will only reside in the rights holders-approved DRM formats; ones that they feel protect their interest. That’s not to say that there won’t be a huge market for other content in another format, and that could be an open format.

Do you think that one company will be allowed to hold the keys for content protection?

Who is going to stop them? Are you talking about Government restrictions?

Some view it as a monopoly.

Certainly from the discussions I have had with content creators of the large studios, there is an unease with a number of companies holding all of the keys. There have been many suggestions as to the way that could be got around. One I found interesting was Fraunhoffer’s Light Weight DRM (LWDRM), but it still relies on a central repository that decides whether you are entitled to this music or that you have paid to have access to it.

The Fraunhoffer response to that question is to say, well we place that with a third party – so you split up the business of running the content protection system away from the business of holding the keys to the access to that content. Their suggestion was that it be done by institutions like the German post office. Different nations have got different relationships with their governments. So that’s something that might work in a country such as Germany, but not others.

There are two arguments – on the open source side there are many people, the Electronic Frontier Foundation (EFF) for example, who argue that there should be no content protection and people will pay for their content, relying on the good nature of man.
 
Rightly or wrongly, that is not how the mainstream media industry sees it. But if you look at companies like Warp Records, they sell their music in MP3 format. They have taken a more open file format, which can be exchanged quickly between different formats and difference devices. The consumer in me sees this as completely reasonable. I buy something and then I am able to put it on whichever device I want.

I did some research for the European Commission on a unified media platform called N2MC and it became clear from speaking to a wide range of people, along the whole creation-to-distribution change, that the idea of an open source content protection system didn’t currently work for them.

Because it could be easily reversed engineered?

It was seen as a weakness in the chain. One part of a content protection system must remain proprietary.

This interview is continued and concluded here.


Simon is chairing ‘The missing piece – Getting paid for content’ session between 11:30 and 13:00 at the IBC conference on Sunday, 12th September in Amsterdam. Register for IBC here